"Normal" dry and "dry" dry.
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Annual duration of drought (in weeks) in Big Cypress Nat'l Preserve, 1992 - present |
Unless we have an El NiƱo like we did last winter.
Then its a "wet" dry season.
This year is shaping up like a "dry" dry season.
But it's not there yet.
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Monthly probability of drought in Big Cypress Nat'l Preserve, 1992-present |
Deep dry downs (i.e. as defined by moderate or severe above) usually doesn't strike until April through June.
Historically in those months our chance of getting them is a fifty-fifty chance.
Or in other words a flip of the coin.
My guess for this year is heads!
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