Feb 17, 2017

"Toss of the coin" drought

The swamp has two types of dry seasons:

"Normal" dry and "dry" dry.

Annual duration of drought (in weeks)
in Big Cypress Nat'l Preserve, 1992 - present

Unless we have an El Niño like we did last winter.

Then its a "wet" dry season.

This year is shaping up like a "dry" dry season.

But it's not there yet.

Monthly probability of drought
in Big Cypress Nat'l Preserve,

Deep dry downs (i.e. as defined by moderate or severe above) usually doesn't strike until April through June.

Historically in those months our chance of getting them is a fifty-fifty chance.

Or in other words a flip of the coin.

My guess for this year is heads!

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