"Toss of the coin" drought

The swamp has two types of dry seasons:

"Normal" dry and "dry" dry.

Annual duration of drought (in weeks)
in Big Cypress Nat'l Preserve, 1992 - present

Unless we have an El Niño like we did last winter.

Then its a "wet" dry season.


This year is shaping up like a "dry" dry season.

But it's not there yet.

Monthly probability of drought
in Big Cypress Nat'l Preserve,
1992-present

Deep dry downs (i.e. as defined by moderate or severe above) usually doesn't strike until April through June.

Historically in those months our chance of getting them is a fifty-fifty chance.


Or in other words a flip of the coin.

My guess for this year is heads!