Oct 27, 2015

How to: Predict a cold front

No official cold front has arrived,

But no reason to get worried quite yet.

This histogram shows the frequency that the first official cold front (i.e. two consecutive nightly lows below 60° F) arrives to Naples Florida, as based on the historical record from 1941 to present.

Some years we get what I call a teaser front (i.e. 2000) in early October, but most years (as shown by the distribution curve above) our first real dose of cold air doesn't arrive until a week or two on either side of Halloween.

Although some years we have to wait a longer than that, (i.e. 1986, 2013).

I can't say exactly for this year's other than by Thanksgiving it most likely will have arrived.

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