Aug 22, 2012

Return frequency not in our favor

It's now been 2,495 days since Florida's seen 
its last hurricane-strength storm (Wilma, 2005).

The long-term average between storms is 510 days.

Caveat: This chart only shows
hurricane-strength storms.

Tropical depressions that make landfall
one inch across state lines, i.e. Alabama,
or one knot under 74 mile per hour winds,
the streak is held intact. 

Does that mean we are overdue?

Historically speaking the answer is yes.  The current streak marks the longest in Florida history (or at least going back to 1903).  The next longest span between hurricane-strength storms to make a Florida landfall was between Frederic (1979) and Elena (1985).  Interestingly, Frederic was preceded by one of the shortest intervals: It made landfall in Pensacola just 10 days after an east-coast landfall (in Jupiter) by David.

Looking into the future, it's not a question of if ...

But when (and where).


Janie said...

Looks like the Republican convention and Hurricane Isaac may make landfall simultaneously. Good luck!

Unknown said...

I received an email earlier today: I mistakenly mislabeled Donna (1960) in the year 1966 instead. Next time I post it I will correct. Good eye, Bill!