Oct 6, 2011

Biggest storm since Fay?

Weirdly, as of Thursday, the storm has yet to form.

But according to models, it should take form by Friday (see below.)

South Florida Water Management District Weather
For Informational Purposes Only
9:18AM Thursday, October 06, 2011 (eps)

Synopsis:  Significant rains Friday night through Tuesday.    Mostly dry air remains over the District today and breezy northeast winds will bring some scattered showers mainly east today, tonight, and Friday.  Moisture remains plentiful to our south along an old frontal boundary currently across Cuba.  This boundary is forecast to lift northward into the District Friday night as a low pressure system develops near western Cuba.  The low is forecast to move slowly northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend and early next week.  This low should remain a non-tropical or sub-tropical low and the chances of the system being a purely tropical low are very low.  For a non-meteorologist, the main difference observed in a non/sub-tropical low is that the wind field and area of heaviest rain would be more broad and displaced a couple of hundred miles east of the center of circulation instead of being focused more intensely near the center as it is with a tropical low.  Therefore, breezy to windy conditions with areas of heavy rain are expected to affect areas of the District Friday night through Tuesday bringing 3-4” of rain District-wide and maximum local rainfall totals in the 6-10” range during the 5-day period.  

Courtesy of SFWMD Forecast Page

If the forecast is correct, it would be our biggest rainmaker since Fay.

Fay (August 2008) dropped 5.7 inches south Florida wide over a two-day span.  Mitch (November 1998) holds the single day record with 5.3 inches.  Here's a calendar graph that shows both, plus an article from USA Today which provides more information about the storm.

Here in Florida we are used to tracking storms plodding in from a distance.

This one looks to be just the opposite:

It could land on us practically out of the blue.


Daryl Ritchison said...

It's been 10 days of watching this possibility now and I'll still be curious what will end up happening, but I'm still leaning heavily toward the rain and at least a tropical storm at a minimum. Hopefully it won't get too bad for you.

Unknown said...

I'm amazed at your forecasting ability: That's quite a crystal ball you have up there in Fargo, North Dakota!

Daryl Ritchison said...

I probably need to get out more.

Suwannee Refugee said...

Whatever rain we were lacking with that storm, we made it up completely.