Stream-lining the data

I’m a big fan of index wells.

They offer a simplified way to see the system without getting too lost in site specific data streams.


What makes for a good index well?

• Some are located plunk dab in the middle of the perfect spot;
• Others may aggregate data from a wide geographic area;
• Usually they come with a long historical record,
• And typically they are used for decision making.

Case in point is regulatory stage for the Water Conservation Area 3 portion of the Everglades. It’s computed by averaging three sites (Site 63, Site 64 and Site 65) into a single stage.

Area 3’s water depths are currently a foot deeper now than late March of last year. In terms of the annual cycle water, current stage is about a foot above the long-term low-water ebb in May and a foot below the long-term high-water crest in early October (based on the 20 year record).


As “midway” as that may seem,
For April it’s actually pretty high …

Or statistically-speaking, up in the 90th percentile.

"green out" begins

Wet winter's "last hurrah?"

Swamp stage is touching up
into historic high-water territory
for late March …

That’s going all the way back to 1992.


Parts of the swamp have flooded back up into (and across) pinelands. Preserve-wide, shin-deep water has a steady foothold throughout our marl prairies.


You may remember us ending our summer “wet season” on a dry note:

The wetting front dropped out of the hydric pines early – by late October – followed weeks later by its seemingly unstoppable demise out of the marl prairies and into the low-lying cypress.

That’s when our first “El Niño” enhanced shower struck.


The months that followed have been wet by “dry season” standards.

The March is in fact “wet season” worthy if you factor in that the “evapotranspiration knob” is still on low.


Does that mean we’re just one big storm away from getting washed away in never before seen hydrograph territory (aka Hydro Incognito)?


The same way that weather forecasters predicted the big November storm (that started it all) coming two weeks in advance,

Word from the Meteorologic front line
Is that our recent deluge was our wet winter’s Last Hurrah:

El Niño is wilting on the atmospheric vine
and the Jet Stream is moving north.


Or in other words,
We may get a dry season yet!


(Could the next big rain to drop down into this swamp station
be the start up of summer wet season in late May?)

Henderson Creek

March 29, 2010

Dry season "sea"

It’s been a drought-defying dry season,
more aptly described as "wet."


The tippy tops of the two fence posts featured in
yesterday’s scenic photo point are now officially “submerged.”

(Four inches of rain in 12 hours will do that!)


And so much for catching a glimpse of the “river of grass” from the Tamiami Trail …

The recently ponded rain looks more like a “sea.”


As for the canals …

They are up and the brim and overflowing.


Kind of different from last spring.

ground-water well

Mud and water

Here’s a scenic spot right by the side of the road …
Or in this case – Trail (as in Tamiami).


It’s a foot and a half deeper now,
Than March of last year (2009).

You may ask:
How exactly did I measure
Last year’s water level in that mud?


Turns out I didn’t need to lift a finger,
Or even muddy a boot:

South Florida Water Management District did it for me
In the form of a handy dandy nearby hydrologic monitoring station …

We call them "hydrostations" for short.


As good as it feels to finally be able
to put a "face to a name" …

Putting a "photo to the data" – for a hydrologist – is sort of the same.

Valencias in foreground

grapefruit in back

King of the green oranges?

Among Florida’s principle signs of spring:

Valencia Oranges are in season.

They are the "King of the Juicers,"
And by acreage too cover the most peninsular ground.



The name would imply that they hail from Spain.

They don’t – nor are they grown there much at all.



Instead they come way of California,

But aren’t grown there much anymore either.


Compare that to Honeybells:

The variety was Florida but its season has long passed (Jan-Feb). That’s why I was shocked to see them still in stock on the shelf!



Was it a decrepit rotten bin? – Hardly!

Tarter, drier and with picture-perfect peels
No doubt dowsed with ethylene to “orange” them up:

These Honeybells were hauled in from California.


Florida’s Valencias are typically picked “green.” That’s not because they’re not ripe – They are.

Rather, spring time temperatures don’t oblige to turning them “orange” as their namesake would imply.



And so long as they are being juiced ...

Why bother otherwise?

very tall

old-growth snags.

Twin giants

Not a part of Fakahatchee's main strand,


But two of its biggest giants ...



And in prominent view,
just off the main drag
of Big Cypress Bend boardwalk.

weekend arrives

Kissimmee rains

The source of the Kissimmee is, of course, rain.

Here's a look:


Rains have been plentiful on the Kissimmee this winter.

December and March were particularly high.


But winter rains are never about months.

They are about big rain days in the form of continental fronts.


Those El Niño fueled fronts have marched through south Florida at a steady pace this year ...

The Upper Kissimmee - being at the top - often gets their brunt.


The result has been over 15 inches of dry season rain,

And a running annual total of 55 inches since May 1st.

(The previous three years didn't top 45 in comparison.)


Word from the weather bureau is a weakening El Niño.

That could mean a dry April and May.

S-65E
(on spillway looking towards lock)

Kissimmee rises into 90s

The Kissimmee River is currently flowing into Lake Okeechobee at a discharge rate of over 5,000 cubic feet per second.

That puts it up into 90th percentile territory
(based on the 30 year record).


That sounds high,
But is it really?


Compared to last year this time
(and for the past three springs for that matter) …

The answer is “Yes” –
It flowed under 200 cfs for much of those springs.



Compared to our normal wet season the answer is “Yes” too.

Kissimmee’s median late summer flow rate
for the past 30 years is around 2,000 cfs …

Less than half what’s flowing into the Lake today.


In terms of the big flow years it’s still too early to tell.

The “spring of record” was the El Nino of 1998
when 1.3 million acre feet discharged into the Lake
between January and late March of that calendar year.

(This year’s total (so far) is just over a quarter of a million acre feet in comparison, much smaller.)


But 1998 (and 1983) were the exceptions:

Big flow years are traditionally made during the summer and fall
in the form of big wet seasons and whimsical tropical downpours.

The “summer of record” in that respect spans three years
from 2003, 2004 and 2005 when the Kissimmee delivered
around 2 million acre feet per year into the Lake.


That adds up to more than a full Lake volume,
Or 5 million acre feet, for those three years
from the Kissimmee River alone …

(And not counting water from direct rainfall and the other tributaries).

Now those years were ginormous flow years!
This year remains a wait and see.


Still …
On a logarithmic graph,
the 90th percentile does look pretty high.

New England field stone

(without mortar)

Old Florida lime rock
(with)

Wicked warm

As cold as it’s been in Naples, Florida …
Boston just got a dose of a wicked warm air.



But despite our “cold,”
Naples was still the hotter of the two …

(If that makes sense).


Keep in mind that the nighttime nadir of Naples record January freeze plunged only as low as Boston’s daytime highs of the same month.



Boston can expect a return
of daytime highs in the 50s,
And nights in the 30s …



As for Naples,
We’ve only seen 3 days
break 80 since early February.



Somehow I don’t see that lasting.

at LaBelle

Mighty MississippEE

Here in south Florida, 10,000 cubic feet per second (cfs)
is a gigantic – and relatively rare – flow event.

Tropical Storm Fay (in 2008) was the last time it happened,
Up on the Caloosahatchee at the S-79.

And only for a two week period.


Before that in 2005 south Florida’s same big river
let loose at over 10,000 cfs for eight weeks over the summer and fall.

Its source, of course, was Lake Okeechobee …
Or at least a good chunk of it was.

But even so,
they are the exceptions, not the rule.



The Mississippi River by comparison
hasn’t touched below 100,000 cfs for the past 30 years.

It’s normal spring peak? – Around 800,000 cfs.

Last year’s topped 1,000,000 cfs.



That’s a lot of water into the gulf!

The past two years each topped 90 Lake Okeechobee volumes worth.

A Mighty MississippEE indeed!

Lake Chekika

Then

And Now

(There is something sad about a well gone dry.)